Saturday, August 9, 2008

Russian / Georgian War -- Is It All About Oil?

A section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline 30 miles south Tbilisi, Georgia, under construction in 2003


TBILISI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Russian fighter jets targeted the the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which carries oil to the West from Asia but missed, Georgia's Economic Development Minister Ekaterina Sharashidze said on Saturday.

"This clearly shows that Russia has not just targeted Georgian economic outlets but international economic outlets in Georgia," she said at a news briefing.

There have been no independent verifications of Russian jets targeting the BTC pipeline. (Reporting by Margarita Antidze, writing by James Kilner, editing by Jon Boyle)


More Information And News

BTC Pipeline -- Wikipedia
Analysis: energy pipeline that supplies West threatened by war Georgia conflict -- Times Online
Russia stages raid near key oil pipeline: Georgia -- AFP
US has political, economic stake in far-flung spat -- AP
FACTBOX - Georgia's importance as an energy transit state -- Reuters
UPDATE 1-Turkey pipeline repairs may take over 2 weeks-source -- Reuters
Commentary -- From Blackfive

My Comment: The BTC oil pipeline moves almost 1 million barrels of oil a day that is worth over $100 million dollars daily in exports. For Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, this oil is an important economic and strategic asset for their governments and peoples. For the international community .... any obstruction in this supply will raise the price of crude significantly

If Russia is serious in cutting this pipeline and goes about doing it, this will not only devastate the economies of the region, but it will also significantly increase the price of oil on the spot market .... thereby affecting everybody. For the moment, Russia has enormous leverage on the international community by simply threatening to shut down this pipeline. I am also sure that many oil traders and government economic ministries are now calculating the impact on crude prices if this oil supply is cut off .... and are coming to the same conclusions.

But are Russian forces intent on shutting this pipeline? That is a question in which I do not know the answer. If the pipeline is shut down, Russia will lose a considerable amount of political support because of the increase in the price of crude that will be the result. But for Russia's bottom line .... any increase in crude prices will only enrich its own coffers .... a big benefit that will also translate into more international influence and power.

If the pipeline is hit and a section of it destroyed in the next few days .... this will be the clearest sign to the international community that the Russian Bear is back, and no one has any business being in its back yard.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

People of the world. You deceive! World mass media conduct propagation
of a false information. Russia DID NOT ATTACK Georgia! 07.08.2008 at
22:00 Georgia has attacked South Ossetia. At 3:30 08.08.2008 tanks of
the Georgian armies have entered into city Tskhinvali. Artillery
bombardment all the day long proceeded, fights with use of tanks and
heavy combat material, both against ossetic armies, and against peace
inhabitants were conducted. 2000 civil people already were lost. The
Russian peacemakers have arrived to South Ossetia in the evening
08.08.2008 for settlement of the conflict and prompting of the world in
republic and protection of the Russian citizens living on territory of
South Ossetia. Georgia has attacked South Ossetia on eve of Olympiad,
it is top of cruelty and cynicism. Proofs and video-materials look on :
http://www.1tvrus.com/ , http://www.1tv.ru/owa/win/ort6_main.main ,
http://www.rian.ru/ , http://www.vesti.ru/news , http://news.ntv.ru/ ,
http://www.ren-tv.com/ , http://www.newsru.com/ .
We shall tell is not present to WAR!!!