Analysis And Commentary On The Sri Lanka Civil War

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ANALYSIS-Sri Lanka Army Hits Rebels,
But Victory Won't End War -- Reuters

COLOMBO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's advance into Tamil rebels' heartland has unleashed the bloodiest combat in a decade and opened a new phase of the 25-year-old conflict, but conventional military success won't mean an end to war.

Over the past three weeks, the army has thrust into territory held by the separatist guerrillas and are within artillery range of Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's (LTTE) administrative headquarters and symbolic prize for the government.

The advance has provoked some critics to warn things could turn out like 1999, when the army pushed itself deep into Tiger territory only to be shoved back ferociously in a matter of days.

Analysts say this time the military has the upper hand, fighting on four fronts to encircle the rebels while striking the LTTE's naval assets and hitting it with artillery, ground forces and air strikes. It does not, however, mean an easy road ahead.

"They have achieved a small breakthrough but the LTTE are putting up a tough fight," said Maria Kuusisto, analyst with the Eurasia Group in London. "I think it's going to be difficult to beat the deadline of defeating them before the end of the year."

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My Comment: The difference between now and 1999, is that the central government has the will and resources to defeat militarily the LTTE. They have cut their routes of supply, and are systematically cutting the territory they control piece by piece. This war may not end in a few months, but it will end one day.