The Changing Strategic Relations And Military Alliances In Asia

Strategic Environment Changing -- The Australian

KEVIN Rudd delivered a sober message to the Australian people last night: the spectacular growth in Asian military budgets, especially China's, dictates a substantial investment by Australia in high-tech, cutting-edge military capability.

And these capabilities don't come cheap.

It is a measure of the Prime Minister's commitment to national security that with the economy slowing and the country suffering increased unemployment and the effects of international financial crises, he should so specifically recommit to real growth in the defence budget of 3 per cent a year for the next decade.

Rudd is also right to argue for a balanced force structure, with an army capable of every type of operation from peacekeeping to offensive war, a navy capable of disaster relief, high-intensity war and support for the deployment of troops, and an air force that can strike, defend or support.

However, the most intellectually creative and interesting part of the speech concerns Rudd's judgment of the US.

He correctly sees the US as the dominant strategic player in Asia at least until 2050. Other powers, notably China and India, will rise, and may even rise relative to the US, but Washington will still lead the region militarily by the middle of the century.

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My Comment: The regional super powers that will be in the region in 2050 will be Japan, India, and China. The super power will still be the U.S. How all the other countries in the region will align themselves will be strongly dependent on how these three countries and the U.S. conduct their affairs on the continent.