Is This Al Qaeda's Last Stand?

Tribal Tribulations -- Strategy Page

September 25, 2008: The war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, between the governments and Islamic radicals, has become so violent this year that Pakistan is now the center of the war against Islamic terrorism. So far this year, over 8,000 people have died in this part of the world due to Islamic violence. About half the deaths are in each country. It is really the same war, with the Taliban and al Qaeda active in both places. Al Qaeda has moved its money, and most of its leaders and technicians, to this part of the world, after being defeated in Iraq. Al Qaeda has declared Afghanistan and Pakistan their new main battleground. On a more pragmatic level, this is al Qaeda's last stand. There's nowhere else in the world, outside of the tribal areas of Pakistan, along the Afghan border, where al Qaeda could find refuge. Their allies, the Taliban, are a Frankenstein like monster, created by the ISI (the Pakistani CIA) fifteen years ago. Recruiting Afghan exiles, and students from religious schools (founded by Saudi religious charities during the 1980s), the ISI armed these Talibs (religious students) and sent the Taliban into Afghanistan to win the civil war there and bring order out of the chaos. That only worked for a few years. But the Taliban ideas caught on with some of the Pushtun tribes on both sides of the border. These tribes want to rule both countries, but because of their short lived Taliban success in the late 1990s, believe they have a shot at running Afghanistan again.

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My Comment: An excellent summary of the problems that Al Qaeda would have in trying to take over Pakistan. Its short term goals are to consolidate their position in the Tribal Regions in Pakistan. Will they be successful is dependent on Pakistan's reaction to them.