Taming the Nuclear Dragon -- An Essay

A mushroom cloud follows the test detonation of an 11-megaton
nuclear device over Bikini Atoll on March 26, 1954. Corbis

From The Wall Street Journal:

A global nonproliferation treaty is in serious danger of falling apart

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970, signed by 190 countries, was intended to halt the spread of nuclear weapons and ultimately create a bomb-free world. It will come up for review next year and it is in serious danger of unraveling.

North Korea has done a masterful job of stalling the reversal of its weapons program, and Iran steadfastly refuses to allow inspectors into its nuclear facilities. Pakistan celebrated its 1998 nuclear test as a demonstration of an "Islamic Bomb," a frightening prospect given the current violence in Gaza. Never has nuclear proliferation -- and the treaty that for nearly four decades has kept it in check -- been a more serious issue on the world agenda.

The most important element of the NPT is the promise by nations without nuclear weapons not to develop them. In exchange, they receive assistance in the peaceful uses of nuclear technology for energy, medicine and industry. The existing nuclear states -- the United States, the Soviet Union, Great Britain, France and China -- agreed to "general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control." Only India, Israel and Pakistan declined to participate. (North Korea signed, but then withdrew in 2003 and conducted a nuclear test in 2006.) Many countries are now capable of creating their own bombs and some believe that they need them to deter attacks from neighbors.

Read more ....

My Comment: When China passed along their atomic secrets to Pakistan and North Korea, the genie was now out of the bottle. Pakistan's selling of nuclear technology to Libya, Iran,and who knows who else .... this busted completely and forever any possibility of restrictions or prohibitions on the transfer of nuclear technologies.

Countries are not listening to what other countries are saying or doing ... including what the U.S. may say. If they deem it is in their interests to develop nuclear weapons .... they will. Sanctions, diplomatic rebukes .... this is already now perceived as a cost of doing business .... and for many it is now an acceptable cost.

The problem with arms control agreements has always been the sticking issue of verification. Trust .... but verify. It was President Reagan who coined this term .... and it is very applicable today. The problem is that countries like North Korea and Iran have made it very clear that verification is not acceptable .... I guess the idea of inspectors running around in their country and looking at their dirty laundry is not an acceptable proposition.

Will a new agreement be signed .... in today's multi-polar world .... definitely not.