Behind The Sea Spat Between The U.S. And China

The USNS Impeccable. Five Chinese vessels shadowed and maneuvered dangerously close to the Navy surveillance ship, prompting a U.S. protest. US Navy / AP

From Time Magazine:

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and China's Foreign Minister, Yang Jiechi, both agreed on Wednesday that China and the U.S. should work to ensure that incidents like Sunday's showdown in the South China Sea "do not happen again." The incident in question involved several Chinese naval vessels harassing a U.S. surveillance ship off the island of Hainan. But despite the soothing words of the two top diplomats, it's a safe bet that more such incidents can be expected in the future. The Pentagon was quick to note that the mariners aboard the U.S.N.S. Impeccable were civilians working for the Military Sealift Command, while the Chinese side stressed that the confrontation involved local fishing boats. The reality is that the incident occurred because both sides are preparing for war — "shaping the battlefield," in military jargon — for a conflict that both hope will never happen.

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My Comment: U.S. spy ships and spy planes have been in this area for years. The question that should be asked is why now. Why are the Chinese provoking this situation at this moment in time.

The answer (I think) is simple. This is a test on how President Obama and his administration will react to a crisis. Such an incident would have been inconceivable when President Bush was in the White House. After the 2001 incident with the U.S. reconnaissance/spy plane .... and the tense standoff between the two .... the Chinese never approached another spy plane that close, nor did it attempt to harass U.S. Navy ships as it did this past week. (At least that is what we presently know from available public information).

Because of this past history, I believe that one can make the argument that the Chinese are now testing the waters. They know that President Obama is not President Bush, and they want to see what leverage they have on this White House.

While most of today's talks between Sec. of State Clinton and her Chinese counterpart are private, I would not be surprise that the message was past on to the Chinese that as far as the U.S. is concerned, the USNS Impeccable was operating in international waters, and that any repeat occurrence would produce consequences.

If a repeat occurrence happens in the near future .... this will tell me that U.S. fortitude and its position in the region is now no longer taken seriously by the Chinese Government. This will be a troublesome development for everyone in the region .... including the U.S.