Can Iraq Explode Into Civil War After The Americans Leave?

U.S. Army Capt. Clay White, right, talks to an Iraqi police officer as he carries an Iraqi child wearing a police uniform following a school supply distribution in eastern Baghdad, Iraq, April 1, 2009. White, a company commander, is assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division's Company C, 2nd Battalion, 505th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team. U.S. Iraqi officials invited U.S. paratroopers to participate in National Orphan Day across Iraq and more than 60 orphan children received needed goods. U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Alex Licea

Is Gates Channeling Cheney On Iraq With 'Last Gasp' Remark? -- McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — Midway through a week of mayhem in Iraq, Defense Secretary Robert Gates raised eyebrows when he said the recent resurgence of violence in Baghdad was "a last gasp" of Islamic extremists.

It was an echo of former Vice President Dick Cheney, who in 2005 said the insurgency was "in the last throes." The following two years were the deadliest period of the war.

Today, as in 2005, other top U.S. military and intelligence officials worry that escalating tensions could threaten the administration's plans to draw down American forces in Iraq.

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My Comment: I have always felt that the decision to leave Iraq was more based on politics than what is the reality on the ground .... and what is the reality on the ground is the need for a long term U.S. military presence for the next 5 to 10 years (At a minimum).

But U.S. military limits and lack of public support back home means the opposite is going to happen. The outcome of this decision is being felt in Iraq right now .... and I can only expect more violence and low intensity conflict to continue for the next few years .... if longer.