What Are The Civil War Prospects In Iraq?

Former members of the Shiite Muslim Mahdi Army militia, followers of the radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr (poster R), gather at a new school in Sadr City, Baghdad in December 2008. Ahmad al-Rubaye / AFP / Getty

Will Shi'ite Militias Seek Revenge in Iraq? -- Time Online

Abu Zaid, a Shi'ite in the Mahdi Army militia led by Moqtada al-Sadr, says he is simply waiting for word on whether to fight again.

With a series of bombing attacks against Shi'ites leaving at least 150 people dead in recent days, many Iraqis have wondered whether the Mahdi Army will continue to stand down or renew death squad killings as they did when sectarian violence raged out of control for more than a year beginning in 2006. Zaid and others associated with Sadr say that for now the militia is effectively dormant. "The Mahdi Army is off the streets by order of the Sadr himself," says Zaid, who spoke to TIME in Najaf and pointed to a standing unilateral cease-fire declared by Sadr roughly a year ago. "If he orders us to go back, we are ready. If he does not, any one of us who goes into the streets carrying weapons, we consider them an enemy."

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My Comment: This is the big fear in Iraq .... and with some justification. The Sunni - Shiite conflict has been ongoing since the onset of Islam. Both sides have a culture of fear and intolerance directed at each other, and no American military presence can change that.

I believe that the only way that Iraq can survive any sectarian conflict .... is if it's military has the sufficient numbers and training to make a difference. But unfortunately this is still far from the case. It would take a few more years before one can say that the Iraqi military is up to par .... and that they have the military culture and equipment to obstruct and stop what sectarian groups may try to do.

But with the American military out in the next two years .... I do not see any sufficient force to counteract what the Shiite and Sunni groups may do to each other. In the past week .... with a number of car bombs going off .... we have had a taste of what is possible. I can only hope that the leaders in Iraq and Washington are sensitive to this possibility.