N. Korea's Nuclear Defiance May Embolden Iran, Israelis Worry

Photo: At an Asian security summit this weekend, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates reassured participants - including his Japanese (l.) and S. Korean (r.) counterparts - that the US would not 'bend to pressure or provocation.' Wong Maye-E/AP

From Christian Science Monitor:

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates promised Saturday that the US will not 'stand idly by,' but the communist nation's example could be a case study in how to side-step diplomacy.

Tel Aviv - As the US and Asian neighbors of North Korea mull a united response to block the communist nation's nuclear program following a recent test, Israel is bracing for the fallout.

The chief concern is that Pyongyang's defiance of the international community will serve as a case-study for how Iran also might side-step diplomacy, acquire nuclear weapons, and fuel a regional arms race. If North Korea can get away with becoming a nuclear nation with little punishment and despite US diplomatic efforts, Israeli analysts say that may embolden Iran to flout international pressure, too.

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My Comment: There are two forces at work here. North Korea's neighbors are now formulating a strategy to counter a clear cut case of nuclear proliferation in their "neighborhood". The are united in their opposition, but they will now have to agree upon a universal course of action. This will take some time. The wild card is Japan. If North Korea has a developing and growing nuclear weapons program, Japan may be inclined to change their constitution and start their own nuclear weapons program .... a feat that can be done very quickly. This change in policy will send shock waves throughout Asia.

The other "force" is in the Middle East.

Iran is now looking at developments in Asia, and are realizing that the cost to having a nuclear weapons program is not that steep .... if there is a cost at all. In turn, I believe that this will only embolden the Iranian Government to speedup and pursue their own program ..... and they will do so in the open. The wild card is Israel, and on how they may react .... but for the moment the Iranians are looking at Asia.

The development of an Iranian nuclear weapons program will also change the dynamics of the region appreciably. Do not surprise if Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt start to develop their own programs also .... and they will do so with the blessings of Europe and from the U.S. This will also will send shock waves throughout the region.