Should Latin Leftists Fear A Honduras Coup Domino Effect

In this June 29, 2009 file photo, Bolivia's President Evo Morales, left, Honduras' ousted President Manuel Zelaya, second left, Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega, third left, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, fourth left, and Ecuador's President Rafael Correa pose for a photo at the Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas group, or ALBA, in Managua. Zelaya's chances of getting restored to the Honduran presidency become more distant with each passing week, and across Latin America, his allies and foes alike see a precedent being set. (AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco, File)

From AP:

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras — Manuel Zelaya's chances of getting restored to the Honduran presidency become more distant with each passing week. Across Latin America, his allies and foes alike see a precedent being set.

It's a glimmer of hope for the region's conservative elite, which has watched with dismay over the past decade as a wave of leftist presidents has risen to power, promising to topple the establishment and give greater power to the poor.

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My Comment: I cannot see any changes in the governments of Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador, or Bolivia anytime soon .... but there are long term currents that does put everyone at risk.

For example ... in Venezuela there is a great deal of animosity and anger directed at Hugo Chavez from University students, unions, and what remains of the business middle class. But with the backing of the military, his corp of civilian supporters (of which a good chunk of the poor in the country are represented), as well as every instrument of government .... Hugo Chavez has (and will) maintain power. The only way that the dynamics of Venezuela can possibly change is if it's oil spigot gets cut off .... but I doubt that this is going to happen in the short term.

Bolivia's problems are different. President Morales may be a socialist, but his power base is from the poor and indigenous people of the country (of which he is one of them). His opposition comes from people of European Spanish descent .... and who also happen to own the most productive parts of the country. This ethnic/racial conflict is the most worrisome .... because it is these type of conflicts bring out the worse in people, and for Bolivia this has not run its course.

Ecuador and Nicaragua are two pathetic and poor countries. They subsist on the generosity of Venezuela, and have little if any prospect of improving their social/economic status. Their value in the scheme of things is their strategic locations .... and even then I am not be impressed by that.

If there is a leftist government that is going to change, it is going to be Argentina. Mismanagement and corruption has completed discredited the Government, and with all of its economic and management decisions now coming home to roost in the form of high unemployment and inflation.... there will be a change in the Presidency in the next Federal election.