Sunday, October 18, 2009

China's Class Ceiling -- A Commentary


From The L.A. Times:

For the nation's growing economic elite, life is sweet. For dissidents and peasants, it's a different story.

That the current ruler of the People's Republic of China, Hu Jintao, is a bore will no doubt be a relief to most people, including 1.3 billion Chinese. Hu's dullness is remarkable given the high drama of China's fairly recent transformation from a poor, blood-soaked totalitarian country to a rich (in patches) superpower aspiring to take over America's lead in the not-so-distant future. But perhaps his lack of charisma is part of the point. The first 27 years of the People's Republic, under Chairman Mao, when millions died in almost constant purges and upheavals, and tens of millions died of starvation in bizarre economic experiments, were so awful that most Chinese are quite sick of charismatic leadership.

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My Comment: I completely concur with what this commentary says. Fortunately, in the 20+ years of doing business with China and living there, I have never been constrained by them on what I say. Actually .... they almost always agreed with me .... and this is coming from the top.

The direction that China is going is something that I noticed in the mid 1980s. A huge underclass, a significant middle class (10% to 20%) of the population, and a super-rich and very powerful upper class. It is the middle class that keeps everything in line, and supports the ruling elite of the country. Their payoff is a good life, car, and a good education for their child (in most cases) or their children. This is the Achilles heel of the Chinese Government. If the middle class should ever feel betrayed or abused by the Central Government, the revolution that would come from this group would be enough to upend China's political structures and institutions.

But for the moment .... everyone is happy.

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