Thursday, December 31, 2009

Iran And Nuclear Triggers

Won't Be Fooled Again -- Armchair Generalist

You might remember this breathless announcement by the MSM that a technical document had surfaced showing that Iran was secretly developing a nuclear trigger. This evidence clearly demonstrated that Iran was in fact operating a clandestine nuclear weapons program!

"It looks bad -- there is no doubt about it," said David Albright, a former inspector with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, who reviewed the document and other papers for the London newspaper. He said work on a neutron initiator is a "very strong indicator of nuclear work."

Zoinks! OMG!! What shall we do? That evil mastermind, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, denied it all, but of course he would do that. He's just that kind of nasty movie-drama villain who we must oppose at all cost... unless he was, in fact, telling the truth.

Read more ....

My Comment: The problem with this story .... and all stories that deal with Iran's nuclear program .... is the difficulty of obtaining accurate information. Case in point .... I know many exiled Iranians who live in Montreal (my home town), and they are in constant communication with their contacts in Iran. Because of my Physics background (I have a Bsc. in Physiology-Physics and (more importantly) I have also written extensively on the history of America's Manhattan Project), I have become .... for better or worse .... a dumping ground by my Iranian friends on all things that pertain to Iran's nuclear program.

From all the information and stories that I have heard and gathered, I would hazard a guess that 90% of it is either disinformation and/or elaborate exaggerations and lies, and the other 10% interesting but with no collaboration and .... more importantly .... no additional proof.

So .... when I first read the Time's story about a document revealing Iran's interest in nuclear triggers .... all that I saw was one document .... written by someone .... and now publicly revealed to everyone. But what I did not see was additional proof .... additional collaboration .... and .... more importantly .... additional evidence that is rock solid to backup the original accusation.

Critics on the other side have also not distinguished themselves in this matter. IPSNews may not be sympathetic with the main stream media's portrayal that the Time's document is genuine, but IPS News must use not only better sources than Philip Giraldi (a CIA counterterrorism official from 1976 to 1992), but multiple sources. Philip Giraldi is an official who has been out of the business for the past 17 years, and his information comes from contacts that may .... or may not .... indulge him with the truth. I should know .... because I sometimes feel that my own contacts treat me the same way.

But as to the question .... is Iran secretly developing a nuclear trigger? I honestly do not know the answer, and this is a story that I have been watching for years. The Iranians are behaving the same way that Saddam Hussein's Government behaved with their nuclear program .... a lot of talk, smoke and mirrors, denials and threats, and a complete obfuscation of the truth. But unlike the Iraqis before the 2003 war, I do know that Iran has invested heavily in nuclear technologies, and they are paranoid to the extreme on keeping their work secret. But before we accuse them of anything .... our evidence must still be rock solid.

In the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War, I was adamant in my many comments that our evidence on the existanse of WMD programs in Iraq was lacking in proof that can be collaborated by multiple sources. Intelligence had failed in providing this collaborative proof ... and as a result we should have been more cautious in addressing Iraq and threatening them with war.

We did not .... and after tens of thousands dead, trillions in dollars lost (yes .... I am saying trillions) .... we are now leaving Iraq with very little (if anything) to show for it. Worse .... we have also not learned from our past mistakes .... because from where I am standing it seems that we are now repeating history but with Iran as our main protagonist .... a sick and dysfunctional country that is on the verge of breaking apart but only held together by religious fanatics and the thugs that they have hired to keep the lid on dissent.

Plus ca change .... plus c'est le mem chose. The more things change .... the more that they stay the same.

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