Are War Deaths Often Overestimated?

A Rwandan Hutu rebel carries a gun in the village of Kimua, eastern Congo. A study released last week argues that reports of battlefield deaths such as those in Democratic Republic of Congo have been overestimated.Rebecca Blackwell/Reuters/File

New Study Argues War Deaths Are Often Overestimated -- Christian Science Monitor

A new study, the Human Security Report, argues that politics and fund-raising priorities often lead to overestimates of battlefield deaths, touching off a controversy among the researchers who work on the issue.

A new report released this week asserts that the human cost of modern warfare has decreased significantly, challenging both the methods and results of other studies.

For instance, the Human Security Report, produced at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, British Columbia, claims that the widely cited death toll of 5.4 million in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is double what it should be.

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My Comment: There is probably some validity in this report. I have been covering and studying wars and conflicts for the past two decades, and the original figures for most of these conflicts have always been lowered after the war has stopped.

Even I have been wrong on calculating and/or hypothesizing casualties from a major event. In my case it was 9/11. I was sure that over 10,000 people were killed that day. My calculations came from knowing how many people worked in the twin towers, and how long it would take for most to flee if given the chance. Fortunately, my inflated figures were completely wrong.