Located in the Iranian desert, the Natanz uranium-enrichment facility has been shrouded in secrecy. Many of the buildings there, visible in the aerial image from September 2002 on the far left, are now out of sight, buried underground, near left. The site is also protected by anti-aircraft guns and barbed wire. Photo: DigitalGlobeWar Game Shows How Attacking Iran Could Backfire -- McClatchy News
WASHINGTON — Here's a war game involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. that shows how unintended consequences can spin out of control:
With diplomacy failing and precious intelligence just received about two new secret Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel launches a pre-emptive strike against Tehran's nuclear complex. The strike is successful, wiping out six of Iran's key sites and setting back its suspected quest for a bomb by years.
But what happens next isn't pretty.
Read more ....
My Comment: My own scenario is the following .... Iran builds a stockpile of nuclear weapons bomb material that can make 10 to 15 nuclear weapons with a 10-15 kiloton yield. To prove that their design works, they do a nuclear test that produces a result that is equivalent to Pakistan's first nuclear weapons test.
Sunni Arab states and Israel panic .... but Iran is undeterred and starts to make demands and threats to their adversaries in the region. Hezbollah and Hamas are embolden and start a low level military campaign against Israel .... Israel responds. War breaks out between these groups and Israel responds with massive force. Iran threatens Israel .... Israel ignores their threats. Iran .... needing to save their allies or risk losing face and credibility puts their nuclear threat option on the table. Worldwide sanctions and an embargo on Iran is implemented, with a threat of massive nuclear retaliation if Iran should decide to use their weapons of mass destruction against another state.
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