Three decades of getting it right (Image: Ethan Hill/Contour by Getty Images)From New Scientist:
MY HOROSCOPE this week says that now is the perfect time to relocate, or at least de-clutter. I know it's nonsense, but I can't help wishing there was a genuine way to predict the future.
Perhaps there is. One self-styled "predictioneer" believes he has found the answer. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a professor of politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in California. In his new book, The Predictioneer (The Predictioneer's Game in the US), he describes a computer model based on game theory which he - and others - claim can predict the future with remarkable accuracy.
Read more ....
My Comment: I have a "wealthy" Korean friend who manages money. He uses models to predict geopolitical and economic trends .... and he also has a 90% success rate. Unfortunately .... he has not shared this wealth of knowledge with me on how to make money, but he has shared with me one piece of information on how he does it .... his secret is that he reads everything.
There is some validity to this point. I have been following wars and conflicts for the better part of 20 years .... and I read everything. This blog was initially created to categorize and summarize these conflicts, wars, and military/political trends. It has been an interesting ride .... but one of the side effects from doing all of this work is that my instincts on predicting future wars, geopolitical events, and military trends are now very good .... maybe even close to 90%.
Now if I can get the math down pat in a mathematical model .... wow .... my success rate will be close to 100%, and governments and corporations will be willing to pay me gazillions of dollars for my private consultation instead of reading it for free in this blog.
Yeah right .... sighhhh .... you can tell that I am dreaming.
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