A US Army soldier stands near a disabled armored vehicle during an operation in Maiwand District, Kandahar, Afghanistan on Tuesday. Tim Wimborne/ReutersPrecedent Suggests Afghanistan Taliban Could Win: Report -- Christian Science Monitor
A new study says the Afghanistan Taliban enjoy a slew of advantages that historically correlate with insurgent success, such as Pakistani sanctuary and a weak government in Kabul.
While current US counterinsurgency doctrine in Afghanistan broadly conforms with historical best practices, the Taliban enjoy a slew of advantages that historically correlate with insurgent success, according to a new study of 89 past and ongoing insurgencies worldwide.
Factors that favor the Taliban include receiving sanctuary and support in another country, learning to be more discriminating in targeting their attacks, and fighting a government that's both weak and reliant on direct external support.
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My Comment: My Russian relatives who got stuck fighting the Afghan war in the 1980s with the Soviet Army are saying the same thing. The Taliban are just copying what their father's did when they fought against the Soviet military. The only exception between that war and this war is that the U.S. (and other countries) are not arming the Taliban with anti-aircraft missiles and other sophisticated weapons.
Will the same outcome be the result .... from where I am standing it is easy to predict that U.S. forces will be out of the country within two years .... and like the departure of the Soviet military from Afghanistan in 1988 .... the Taliban will be rolling into Kabul a few years after that.
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Are there (in your opinion) any key developments or key decisions still open, that could shift the current likely outcome?
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