Buildup Of Naval Forces In The Persian Gulf Raising Red Flags Across The Middle East

November 3, 2005: USNS Arctic T-AOE-8 in the Atlantic Ocean conducting a replenishment at sea with USS Harry S. Truman CVN-75 and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower CVN-69. (Photo from Maritime Quest)

Report: US Warships Stationed Off Iranian Coast -- RAW Story

As unconfirmed reports of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities pick up steam in the Middle Eastern media, a US-based strategic intelligence company has released a chart showing US naval carriers massing near Iranian waters.

The chart, published by Stratfor and obtained by the Zero Hedge financial blog, shows that over the last few weeks a naval carrier -- the USS Harry S Truman -- has been positioned in the north Indian Ocean, not far from the Strait of Hormuz, which leads into the Persian Gulf. The carrier joins the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which was already located in the area. The chart is dated June 23, 2010.

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My Comment: Every time the U.S. sends a carrier fleet into (or near) the Persian Gulf, everyone writes that there is going to be an impending strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

It is not going to happen.

Two carrier fleets is an insufficient force to strike at Iranian nuclear targets. The U.S. presence in Iraq is downsizing .... and downsizing fast. The U.S. presence in Afghanistan is growing, but it is (at a minimum) a 1,000 km away (one direction) from Iran's nuclear sites.

Israel's air force does not have a combined strike force to attack all of Iran's nuclear facilities .... and I do not see them striking these targets in conjunction with a U.S. strike.

I wrote about this two years ago, but for any strike against Iran to be considered inevitable, the following assets must be in place (as told to me by someone in the know).

A minimum of 4 carrier groups. A heavy bomber presence on Diego Garcia. A heavy U.S. military presence in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. Patriot missile batteries all over the place. Aegis equipped ships in the area. And .... most important of them all .... the political will in Washington and among our allies to conduct such an attack on Iran.

At the moment .... I do not see any of these assets in place, nor do I see any political will to do anything about it.

Then again .... Israel may decide to do a "hail Mary pass" and attack Iran's main nuclear facilities including the Bushehr nuclear plant , and hope that in the mess that follows it will eventually benefit them.