I Guess That War Over Oil Is Not Going To Happen Soon

Peak Oil Postponed Again -- The Telegraph

So there is plenty of oil and gas after all. Prices will bumble along gently until well into the next decade. We are becoming more efficient in our use of energy, with 3pc extra savings annually. That is a faster pace than the rising real cost of fuel. Mankind will not run out of fuel for a very long time.

That at least is the story today from the International Energy Agency. Their medium-term outlook for fossil fuel markets is a dazzling contrast with last year’s warnings that a combination of break-neck industrialisation in China and lack of investment in new oil fields (thanks to the credit freeze) would exhaust global spare capacity by 2013.

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My Comment: Aside from following wars and conflicts, my other interest has always been to closely monitor energy markets and future trends in oil supplies. I have always been "lucky" in my investments in this area of the economy .... and when you are "lucky" in your analysis, I have learned that it would not be wise to give it up.

In short .... I agree with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's analysis on peak oil. His opinion is one that I have also had for a very long time, and it is refreshing to see others openly voice it in a publication like The Telegraph. The problem with oil supplies has never been about oil supplies .... it has always been about politics. Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq .... there are hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in these countries .... but who would want to invest monies and resources in such unstable and hostile oil producers. Even the U.S. has become a country that is rapidly becoming hostile to the energy industry .... further amplified by the disaster that BP has spun in the Gulf.

But even with this hostility, peak oil is not a problem because other countries are adopting different policies that encourage oil drilling and development. Brazil is investing tens of billions in off-shore oil development. Canada is also doing the same in the Atlantic region as well as up in the Arctic .... and that does not include the monies that have been invested in tar sands projects. China is also involved, becoming Africa's number one investor by putting much of its focus on oil and energy development.

I do know that one day there will be an energy shortage .... that if alternatives are not developed one can then confidently predict that wars and conflicts will be the result. But for now .... unless there is a catastrophe in the Middle East .... our oil markets and supplies should remain stable.