Why Hasn't Israel Bombed Iran (Yet)? -- Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal
The military risks are large; the political risks could be even bigger.
Why hasn't Israel bombed Iran yet? It's a question I often get from people who suppose I have a telepathic hotline to Benjamin Netanyahu's brain. I don't, but for a long time I was confident that an attack would happen in the first six months of this year. Since it didn't, it's worth thinking through why.
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My Comment: Long time readers of this blog know that I have always been skeptical of an Israeli attack against Iran's nuclear facilities. My reasons why are simple .... (1) the distance is too great, (2) there are too many targets to hit, (3) Israel has limited military resources for such a strike, (4) Iran's defenses can be formidable if they are aware of an Israeli strike and even more so if a second wave from Israel is needed to complete the strike, (5) unsure of Arab reaction to Israeli jets flying over their territory, (6) political reaction from Israel's allies after a strike, (7) sanctions and other international measures against the Israeli state, (8) retaliatory strikes and probable war against Hamas and Hezbollah, (9) political protests and opposition within the Israeli state itself.
Onj the flip side I know that there will be a military strike when there are 4 U.S. aircraft carrier groups in the region, a heavy U.S. military presence in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. All of America's B-2 bombers are at Diego Garcia. Israel is stockpiled with ordinances, patriot missile batteries, and the Iron Dome system is fully active. And on the political front .... there has to be political unity in the U.S., most of Europe, and Arab governments are (at worse) neutral.
Hmmmm .... the last time that I looked, we are nowhere near in having sufficient assets (and the necessary political climate) to conduct a successful military strike against Iran .... not even close.
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