A truck is loaded with a container at Rizhao port, Shandong province, on September 10. China's imports leaped in August, boding well for a strengthening of domestic demand in an economy that has become a major driver of global growth. ReutersWhy Some Economists See A Looming US-China Trade War -- Christian Science Monitor
From the halls of Congress to the World Trade Organization, US officials are increasingly criticizing China trade and currency policies – blaming them for America's huge trade deficit.
The storm clouds gathering over America’s trade relations with China darkened this week, prompting some observers to warn of a coming trade war between the world’s two largest economic powers.
As Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner openly criticized China for keeping its currency undervalued, angry congressmen urged legislation that would punish China for artificially boosting its exports.
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My Comment: To me it is never been if .... but when .... this trade war will begin. And how will it begin .... it will begin with the US imposing tariffs on Chinese goods that the US will say is benefiting from a devalued Chinese currency and as a result is taking away jobs from US workers. The Chinese will be forced to respond .... and that is when everything gets messy.
As to when this trade war will start .... I predict it will arise in 2012 a few months before the US Presidential election. I do not have confidence that the White House will succeed in helping the economy and the US job market, and in response to political pressure the White House will then use the Chinese as their whipping boy for why things are not improving.
1 comment:
Don´t be all doomsday´ie now.. :) It won´t happen in 2012 .. the Chinese are smart enough to back down for a while longer - it´s going too well for them right now.. I guess 2016 hehe :)
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