Is Russia's Naval Goals In The Black Sea A Threat?

Russia’s Black Sea Threat? -- War is Boring

In the latest issue of Proceedings Magazine, Lieutenant Colonel John A. Mowchan of the U.S. Army articulates a vision of Russia that is in many ways at odds with reality. For this reason, it deserves a commentary that will also act as a rebuttal.

Early on, the author refers to the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) as Russia’s Sword of Damocles hanging over southeast Europe and the Caucasus. If so, it’s a rusty sword indeed. Mowchan himself notes in the conclusion of that section of the article that,

Currently, the BSF’s only viable warship is the Slava-class guided missile cruiser Moskva. [...] If current modernization and manning trends persist, the BSF will be unable to effectively accomplish any of its assigned missions in the next five years.

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My Comment: I also have doubts that Russia will be able to attain their naval goals in the Black Sea. They will have the regions largest and most effective naval force .... but that is because most of the countries (with the exception of Georgia) do not care, and know that the real threat from Russia will not be from their Navy, but from their ground forces.