Thursday, April 21, 2011

Libya's Civil War Could Last For Months (If Not Longer)



War In Libya Could Drag On, Military Analysts Say -- New York Times

PARIS — France and Italy said Wednesday that they would join Britain in sending liaison officers to support the rebel army in Libya, in what military analysts said was a sign that there would be no quick and easy end to the war in Libya.

The dispatching of the liaison officers — probably fewer than 40 of them, and carefully not designated as military trainers — is a sign also, they said, that only a combination of military pressure from the sky, economic pressure on the government and a better-organized and coordinated rebel force will finally convince Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi that he has no option but to quit.

Read more ....

My Comment: When the fighting first broke out in February/March, I was 100% skeptical that it would end quickly .... especially when it appeared that a good section of the Libyan army would be supporting Gaddafi. With the introduction of U.K./French/Italian military advisers into the conflict .... I am now even more certain that this war will continue to drag on for much longer. Gaddafi will eventually be bled dry .... and through attrition he will lose this conflict. But the huge human and social costs from this conflict will be a stain in Libya that will last for generations, and the recriminations and bitterness that this conflict has spawned will impact the entire region for a very long time.

If the West is committed to ending this war quickly, they will have to intensify their air campaign to strike and destroy the infrastructure that Gaddafi is dependent on to promote this war (i.e. TV and radio towers, electrical plants, fuel depots, bridges and critical road links), and to introduce thousands of NATO and American troops into the conflict. But will this happen .... I have my doubts because I am certain that for the occupant in the White House, such an escalation is off his list of priorities.

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