Summer War In The Middle East? -- Victor Kotsev, Asia Times
TEL AVIV - Spring has come to the Middle East - not the Arab spring, unfortunately - and it is time for the annual billion-dollar question: will there be a big summer war? Indeed, it is a question worth multiple billions of dollars, as it has been codified into an elaborate ritual featuring ever-shifting alliances, "incidents", threats, ever-accelerating arms procurement, and (surprise?) large speculative bets on the financial markets.
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My Comment: War against who? Israel and Hezbollah. Israel and Hamas. Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran and Saudi Arabia. Internal strife in Iraq. If there is going to be a war (which I doubt), it will be probably be another Israeli/Hamas/Hezbollah fight, or a Sunni-Shiite conflict around the Persian Gulf.
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TOP CONTENDER: Hezbollah has been arming for a long time along the border with Israel in S. Lebanon. If Syrian troubles continue, their intrusion into Lebanese affairs might convince them to try a distraction.
Further: Abbas reconciliation with Hamas will mean a choice between trying for two-state solution and/or going along with Hamas declared aim to destroy Israel.
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