Baghdad And Washington Are Not On The Same Page For A Continued U.S. Military Presence In Iraq

Disconnect Divides Washington, Baghdad Over Future U.S. Presence -- National Journal

BAGHDAD — Former Iraqi prime minister Ayad Allawi is one of the most pro-American politicians in this country and has had a warm, decades-long relationship with the Pentagon and the CIA. He believes Iraq's security forces will be incapable of protecting the country without sustained foreign assistance.

But you won't hear him call for U.S. troops to remain in Iraq beyond the end of the year, when the U.S. military is expected to fully draw down its presence unless Washington and Baghdad negotiate an extension.

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My Comment: The problem is Baghdad, and no direction (or leadership) on what to do next. My prediction .... U.S. troops will leave, and the sectarian violence that broke out in 2007 will return but at a low intensity level. Like Lebanon or Bosnia today, Iraq will be one state but broken down into fiefdoms and distinct sectarian/religious areas.