A New Classified National Intelligence Estimate On The War In Afghanistan Is Almost Completed

Let’s Hear From the Spies -- Steve Coll, The New Yorker

In late 2008, the United States intelligence community produced a classified National Intelligence Estimate on the war in Afghanistan that has never been released to the public. The N.I.E. described a “grim situation” overall, according to an intelligence officer’s private briefing for NATO ambassadors.

In late 2010, there was another N.I.E. on the war. This one painted a “gloomy picture,” warning that “large swaths of Afghanistan are still at risk of falling to the Taliban,” the Los Angeles Times reported. This N.I.E., too, has never been published.

Read more ....

My Comment: It is not hard to predict what the National Intelligence Estimate on the war in Afghanistan is going to say. My prediction on what it will say .... the Afghan government has lost legitimacy in the eyes of its civilians, the budget to sustain the Afghan military and police forces is unsustainable, the Taliban are not defeated, as NATO/U.S. forces leave the violence will increase, Pakistan will be an even more unreliable partner in regards to Afghanistan than what it is now, civil war will probably be the inevitable outcome in the next few years, Al Qaeda related groups and other Islamic extremists will return to Taliban controlled parts of the country.