Building A Better Forecast -- Ottawa Citizen
At the beginning of 2011, the United States government’s vast and sophisticated intelligence agencies thoroughly analyzed the situation in Egypt. “Our assessment,” said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, “is that the Egyptian government is stable.”
That was Jan. 25. The same day, a massive demonstration blossomed in Tahrir Square. More followed. A week later, longtime Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak announced he would not seek re-election in September. On Feb. 11, Mubarak resigned.
Of course it’s easy to snigger at poor Hillary Clinton and the many smart people who told her Mubarak wasn’t going anywhere. We saw that movie. We know how it ended. But the truth is no one truly forecast the fall of the Mubarak regime. Not the Israelis. Not the Egyptian opposition. Not Hosni Mubarak.
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My Comment: As one who is always making predictions .... this post is informative and a heads-up on how it is really done (or not).
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