Some Thoughts On Leaving Iraq

U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Robert L. Caslen Jr. and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq James F. Jeffrey meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other leaders in Baghdad, Dec. 22, 2011. Caslen is the commanding general of the Office of Security Cooperation-Iraq. U.S. Army photo by John D. Helms

Iraq Is a Mess. But Leaving Was the Right Call -- Douglas Ollivant, The New Republic

Let us stipulate some ugly facts up front. Iraq remains a weak state. The political institutions are—charitably—immature. The business climate is not overly attractive and corruption is endemic. Were it not for oil, there would be no real economy. There is a serious terrorism problem. Relationships with all the neighboring states are problematic. Sectarian divides remain tense, with some key fault lines unresolved. The country’s armed forces remain incapable of defending its international borders. Given all these facts, it is still very possible that Iraq could revert to its previous state of dysfunction, or find a new variety into which to fall. The chaos of the last few days in Baghdad—in which the Shi'a Prime Minster has pursued charges against his Sunni Vice President, with the latter taking refuge among the Kurds—is likely a precursor of the sort of political drama we can expect for some time to come.

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My Comment: I know that Iraq is in a mess, and our departure has only further divided the many sectarian groups that make up the country. But in the end .... we had to leave. The U.S. is not an empire, and it is the Iraqi people who will need to determine what Iraq's fate will be .... if it is to be civil war .... the imposition of an authoritarian figure .... or a tolerant and democratic society .... in the end it will have to be their choice.

And what is my prediction .... a continuation of sectarian strife, terrorism, economic dislocation, corruption, and .... a real possibility of a Sunni-Shiite-Kurd civil war.