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Iran's Kamikaze Hormuz Threat -- Afshon Ostovar, Foreign Policy
Will Tehran really shut off one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints? Only if it is truly desperate.
When Iran's vice president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, declared on Dec. 27 that "not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz" if Western countries followed through with threats of escalated sanctions over its nuclear program, the world sat up and took notice. Since then, tensions have run high in the Persian Gulf, with Iran holding naval exercises and U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warning Iran that closing the strait would be a "red line" for the United States.
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My Comment: I concur with this analysis. There are two scenarios that would force Iran to attempt to shut down the Persian Gulf to oil traffic .... (1) a military strike against its nuclear facilities .... or (2) they are truly desperate and they need a diversion to take the attention of their people away from their own problems with the Iranian government and refocus them on an outside threat.
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