Fears That Syria's Civil War Will Spread To It's Neighbors

Syria’s Sectarian Fears Keep Region On Edge -- New York Times

NAJAF, Iraq — Abu Ali fled his life as a Shiite cleric and student in Homs, the besieged Syrian city at the center of an increasingly bloody uprising, but it was not the government he feared.

It was the rebels, who he said killed three of his cousins in December and dumped a body in the family garbage bin.

“I can’t be in Homs because I will get killed there,” he said from this religious city in Iraq where he has taken refuge. “Not just me, but all Shiites.”

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My Comment: For the moment, Syria's civil war has not spread to it's neighbors. But as the conflict escalates .... and the refugee crisis increases .... anything will become possible. What is my prediction .... if the war continues for the remainder of 2012, a breaking point will be reached in which much of the Syrian military will probably fracture. Once fractured, this civil war will then become a truly sectarian/religious civil war, with Sunnis on one side, and Shiites (with their allies) on the other. Within the greater Middle East itself .... my bet is that we will then have Iran/Hezbollah overtly supporting one side, and the rest of the Arab world supporting the other side.