Iran War Dial: Odds of Conflict Now at 37% -- Dominic Tierney, The AtlanticA poll of experts reflects a significant cooling of tension between Tehran and Washington.
There's a 37 percent chance that the United States or Israel will strike Iran in the next year, according to The Atlantic's Iran War Dial.
We've assembled a high profile team of experts from the policy world, academia, and journalism to periodically predict the odds of conflict, including: Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Golnaz Esfandiari, Azar Gat, Jeffrey Goldberg, Amos Harel, Ephraim Kam, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Matthew Kroenig, John Limbert, Valerie Lincy, James Lindsay, Marc Lynch, Gary Milhollin, Trita Parsi, Paul Pillar, Barry Rubin, Karim Sadjadpour, Kenneth Timmerman, Shibley Telhami, Stephen Walt, and Robin Wright.
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My Comment: 37%!!!! What does that mean? It should be zero or 100%.
As to what is my prediction .... I say zero percent for a military strike this year.
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