The Turkish government insists its plane was shot down by rockets, despite Syrian claims to the contrary [Reuters]
Turkey Learns Who Its Real Friends Are – So Much For 'Strategic Realignment' -- The Guardian
The Syrian crisis has exposed the folly and weakness of Ankara's attempts to become a regional superpower.
Funny how times change. When the Bush administration sought permission to transit its Iraq invasion troops through Turkish territory in early 2003, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ankara's soon-to-be installed prime minister and his Justice and Development party (AKP) bluntly refused. Their bold defiance of America's will won plaudits around the Arab world, not least from Syria.
With President Bashar al-Assad's regime, not that of Saddam Hussein, now viewed in Ankara as a dangerous enemy, and with the prospect of a bilateral or regional conflict inching closer following Syria's shooting down of a Turkish military plane, Erdogan has swiftly changed his tune. Unwilling to take on Assad by himself, Erdogan turned to the US and Nato for support this week. So much for Turkey's much discussed "strategic realignment".
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My Comment: Talk about reality hitting home. Turkey does not have the military resources to confront Syria .... and more to the point .... is unwilling to spend the money. The key paragraph in this post is the following ....
.... Ankara's twin priorities are both domestic in nature: modernisation and economic growth. Turkey does not want, and cannot afford, a war along its southern border that would jeopardise these aims, further destabilise the Kurdish regions, and seriously compromise its broader regional interests. Assad, presumably, knows this well.
Update: Is Turkey moving toward 'hard power' over Syria? -- Mustafa Akyol, Special to CNN
3 comments:
Turkey actually does have the military resources to confront Syria. Turkey has an impressive array of military hardware, an effective strong airforce (the largest within NATO) and a fairly large and substantial armored divisions with the manpower to back it up. Essentially they are a sleeping giant, and can effectively roll-over Syria if they wanted too...
But while they may have the military resources, the question is if they have the willpower and the financial resources... We all know wars are a lot more complicated than just who has the biggest guns, and considering the volatile situation concerning other parties with interests in Syria, anything could happen and it is wise for Turkey to be cautious.
I think Assad knows he can't afford a conflict with Turkey, and when you play the numbers game, Turkey will suffer for it but would come out on top, Syria is in disarray and with more military defections on the rise, Syria would be in a losing war. With a man like Assad in a losing war, you just don't know what 'measures' he would resort to, which I believe is one of the main reasons Turkey is being cautious.
Again, it's not a question of military resources, but rather willpower, determination and the unpredictable results a war with Syria might yield.
Good point
Agree. Turkey does have enough air power resources that could remove the Syrian air force from the map if so desired unless the unknown perimeters noted below make this impossible. As you all know, the politics make that much more complex. Lots of regional trade and business in that region would get hurt. Also I don't know what the navigation limiters are on the TuAF F-16s. Like Pakistan, the jets are limited in what they can do at different points of the map.... Go to a certain location on the map and you will find yourself in an F-16 that can only perform non-weapons related operations.
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