Thursday, July 26, 2012

Why A Complete Embargo On Iranian Oil Will Not Significantly Impact Oil Prices


Don't Fear the Iranian Oil Reaper -- Mark Wallace, Real Clear World

For months, various pundits, oil experts and Iranian regime officials warned that an embargo on Iranian oil exports by the U.S., EU and others would precipitate a catastrophic shock to oil prices worldwide. This mantra has led many to oppose the complete sanctioning of Iran's oil industry and full enforcement of robust sanctions against Iran. Yet real-world developments have shown this conventional wisdom to be off-base: the truth is that the world's oil markets can withstand a full embargo of Iranian oil, particularly right now.

The numbers prove it. Since the end of 2011, Iran's oil exports have been cut in half, falling by one-and-a-half million barrels per day as customers seek new sources of oil in the face of intensifying U.S. and EU sanctions. If the pundits were correct, the removal of this Iranian supply should have unnerved oil markets and sent oil prices surging. In fact, the opposite has been true. Oil prices recently hit an eighteen-month low.

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My Comment:
I do not share this optimistic view on oil prices and supply. With it's huge cash reserves, Iran can easily sustain itself .... even with a complete oil embargo. But the world will still need oil .... and there will be those who will buy from Iran regardless of sanctions.

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