Syrian Paradox: The Regime Gets Stronger, Even As It Loses Its Grip -- Tony Karon, Time
As the regime's ability to govern Syria declines, it is being transformed into a powerful militia that has little incentive to compromise
News reports typically characterize the Syrian rebellion as being 16 or 17 months old. It is one of those descriptions delivered en passant while relating the news of the day: the battle for Aleppo grinds on into its sixth day threatening a massive humanitarian crisis; new video shows rebels executing unarmed prisoners; President Bashar Assad urges his troops on through written messages but declines to make public appearances, and so on. But the International Crisis Group (ICG), a respected organization of analysts, mediators and former diplomats, on Wednesday issued a report urging opponents of the Assad regime, both Syrian and international, to pay closer attention to the implications of that 17-month time span.
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My Comment: What's my take .... I can easily foresee the regime retreating to Alawite strongholds in North Western Syria .... and assemble what would essentially be a Lebanese solution .... regions and territories divided by sectarian and religious loyalties.
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