Analysis: Can Israel Surprise Iran? Maybe Not, But Could Still Strike -- Dan Williams, ReutersJERUSALEM (Reuters) - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's cancellation of a security cabinet session on Iran following a media leak last week laid bare a conundrum long troubling Israeli strategists: could they count on any element of surprise in a war on their arch-foe?
Possibly not. Years of public speculation, much of it stoked by official statements in Israel and abroad, about the likelihood and timing of such a conflict have afforded the Iranians plenty of notice to fortify their threatened nuclear facilities and prepare retaliation.
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My Comment: I will be shocked if Israel will be able to launch a surprise attack against Iran in today's interconnected world. Iran will learn that they are being under attack (before they are being attacked) when the radar in Iraq (and Iran) is malfunctioning and/or is blinded. They will also have a heads-up when their spotters in the West Bank, Jordan, Iraq, etc.... start to call in on mass formations of aircraft heading east. But will this stop an Israeli attack .... and will Iran be able to stop it with their old aircraft and anti-aircraft batteries/missiles .... probably not.
1 comment:
If Israel were planning to strike in the next few weeks, they would be completely silent about Iran now. The loud talking is simply designed to pressure the U.S into taking a more aggressive stand and other Western countries to apply more sanctions.
Any strike would require hundreds of fighter jets, all of Israel's refueling aircraft, EMC aircraft, etc. Not to mention the possibility of launching Jericho missiles at a few facilities to make up for its limited airstrike capacity, and possibility submarine-launched missiles. Some speculated that Israel would first destroy Iran's power grid by a high altitude nuclear explosion.
The chance of such an attack in the next 6 months is slim to none. I would expect Israel to wait out the election and continue to make threats. If Romney wins, it is definitely positive for Israel. Still not very likely, it is possible in such a case the US would strike Iran in Spring 2013.
For this to happen, Israel must convince the US it will strike some time in October unless the US promises to strike next year if no progress is made and applies more sanctions.
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