Growing Tension Between China And Japan Fuels Concerns Over Potential War -- Mark MacKinnon, Globe and Mail
China’s incoming leader re-emerged this weekend after an unexplained two-week absence, just in time to see the country he’s about to inherit consumed with rabid anti-Japanese nationalism that his Communist Party unleashed, and which the United States warned on Sunday could lead to a regional war.
Beijing’s rapidly deteriorating relationship with Tokyo will top the agenda as Xi Jinping takes over as general secretary of the Communist Party from President Hu Jintao, a promotion expected as early as next month. While Mr. Xi will continue to share power with Mr. Hu for months afterward, the stakes could scarcely be higher for his first test.
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My Comment: The probability of war is zero .... but heightened tensions, inflammatory speeches, economic boycotts, confrontations at sea, warships facing each other .... that is now a given.
3 comments:
I don't think the probability of war is zero. People genuinely hate Japanese in Asia. I think the people(civilian) want their revenge. For exemple, in Korea there's a feeling that their independance has been stolen by the end of world war 2. Most people think their independance movement was about to free Korea and that it has been taken out of their hands by USA and USSR. They hold a grudge against Japan, out of scale compare to North Korea.
Have to say I also don't think the probability of war is zero, and nor do I believe in the "It is either zero, or war", there is a real posibility that this will produce the domino effect and as such there is a risk that this could spring into a fullscale war - National Pride is a very powerful feeling for both these nations.
When I first visited China in the mid-1980s, I always enjoyed teasing my hosts that the only cars on the road were Japanese .... and more to the point .... that their government cars were from Toyota. They always looked down in shame when I said this .... and that was over 25 years ago.
I am in China today .... and I see Japanese products everywhere. Both countries are playing to domestic audiences right now .... but they are also deeply dependent on each other ($300 billion in business per year). I do expect them to eventually sort out their differences .... but it will take time .... and yes .... internal politics in both countries will muddy the waters. But war .... no way .... even though there are some in the Chinese government who saying that they should be preparing to go to war.
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