Monday, September 10, 2012

Revolution In China?

China's Communist Party is facing internal problems

China's Revolution Risk -- Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph

We all know by now about the simmering leadership crisis in China. The Bo Xilai affair has lifted the lid on a hornet's nest. I had not realised quite how serious the situation has become until listening to China expert Cheng Li here at the Ambrosetti forum of the world policy elites on Lake Como. (My hardship assignment each year.) Nor had anybody else in the room at Villa d'Este. There were audible gasps.

The rifts within the upper echelons of Chinese Communist Party are worse than they were during the build-up to Tiananmen Square, he said, and risks spiralling into "revolution". Dr Cheng — a Shanghai native — is research director of the Brookings Institution in Washington and a director of the National Committee on US-China Relations. He argues that China's economic hard-landing is intertwined with a leadership crisis as the ten-year power approaches this autumn. The two are feeding on each other. "You cannot forecast the Chinese economy unless you have a sophisticated view of the political landscape and the current succession crisis," he said.

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My Comment: I am skeptical that the Chinese Communist Party will split into factions .... the reason why is simple .... all of them have too much money and reputations invested into the system. They are going to do everything in their power to work together to avoid any serious economic/financial hiccups or crisis .... even if it means working with their opponents in the Party. And if their is a economic crisis brought about by too much debt .... all of the Communist Party will present a unified front when facing the nation.

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