New W. Intelligence: Syrian Rebels Don’t Have The Numbers To Win -- Debka File
The revised estimates compiled by US and French intelligence agencies on the relative strength of Syrian government and rebel forces have given Washington and Arab capitals backing the Syrian opposition pause. The Obama administration has built its policies around an estimated 70,000 rebel fighters, whereas the revised figure, according to debkafile’s intelligence sources, appears to be less than half - around 30,000. With some 3,000 jihadis, Al Qaeda-linked groups make up around one-tenth of total rebel strength.
Officials in Washington and Paris are trying to play down the revised estimates because it throws out the basic premise of the Obama administration’s Middle East policy that Bashar Assad can’t last more than six months against the rebel offensive.
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My Comment: I am usually skeptical of what Debka reports, but in this case they are raising an important question .... do the Syrian rebels have the numbers to defeat Assad's Syrian military? What's my take .... for now the answer is no .... the Syrian Free Army does not have the numbers to defeat the Syrian military. What's left of Assad's military will probably stay loyal to him, and with his ranks now being filled with young men from the Allawite community .... coupled with additional supporters/trainers from Hezbollah and Iran .... he can maintain the status quo. But on the flip side .... Asssad's military is not capable of controlling the country, and with asymmetrical war now being waged against them in the regions that they do control .... they are being slowly bled. So what is the end result .... I am still going by my original prediction that this civil war is going to burn on for at least one more year, and when it starts to calm down we will be witnessing a Syria that will resemble Lebanon .... a deeply fractured country divided along sectarian lines.
2 comments:
Completely disagree with this on so many levels...
History has proven that guerilla warfare isn't about numbers. It is important, yes, but not vital. Success in these types of wars usually come at a compromise in a drawn out conflict. It is about momemtum, motiviation to fight and how well equipped the rebels are, and they are well equipped...
Look at Afghanistan and the untold damage that has been done, and would many people consider Afghanistan as a win? No...
It is never about numbers in these types of conflicts, it isn't as important.
Thank you D. Plowman for your comment. You do have a point .... I always remember the Khmer Rouge only numbering (at the most) 80,000 .... but they were still able to defeat a far larger Cambodian military with their U.S. weapons. And the reason why is that they had the will to win .... but the Cambodian military with their corrupt government did not. The same for Northern Ireland .... at most the IRA had a hard core group of a few hundred at any one time, but with Catholic civilian support they were able to hold back and befuddle a quarter of the British Army for decades.
What is the difference in Syria .... the Alawites and their allies (some Christians, Druze, etc.) do have the will to win, for they know what the alternative may be. Quoting the Israelis ... who have always been outnumbered by the Arabs .... better die a lion than a lamb.
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