Trying To Talk Our way Out Of Afghanistan

U.S. troops assigned to Provincial Reconstruction Team Farah return to Forward Operating Base Farah after completing a mission to Farah City in Afghanistan's Farah province, Aug. 28, 2012. U.S. Navy photo by Lt. Benjamin Addison

Talking Our Way Out Of Afghanistan -- Matt Waldman, Foreign Policy

NATO needs to negotiate with the Taliban NOW, before all the troops -- and our leverage -- are gone.

The New York Times reported last week that U.S. officials have all but abandoned hope of achieving a peace settlement in Afghanistan before the bulk of foreign troops withdraw by the end of 2014. That's not as bad as it sounds. After all, the Geneva negotiations in the 1980s, which culminated in the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, lasted six years.

But it would be a serious mistake to give up on negotiations altogether. So long as NATO has substantial numbers of troops on the ground, it has leverage. The Taliban see those troops as their biggest threat, and withdrawal has long been the insurgents' foremost demand. What's more, the coalition has the ability to grant the Taliban a measure of international legitimacy, which the group craves.

Read more ....

My Comment: When the Soviets announced that were leaving Afghanistan in 1988, they tried the same "discussion thing" with the Mujahadeen .... hoping that some reconciliation could be reached. The Mujahaden were not buying it .... they waited until the bulk of the Soviet forces left .... and then started their military campaign to take over the country. And even though they were outnumbered at the beginning .... momentum and support among a significant percentage of the Afghan population propelled them to victory a few years later.

In the eyes of the Taliban .... they see history repeating itself. They have made it very clear that as far as they are concerned, aside from discussing prisoner releases (prisoners held by the U.S. and Afghan forces that is) ... there is now no need to continue discussions with NATO/US forces. They are biding their time, knowing that after 2014 the dynamics in Afghanistan will be changing .... changing in their favor that is.