An island in the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu group in the East China Sea. Reuters
Chinese View Of Islands Conflict: “Make It Quick” -- Kirk Spitzer, Time
TOKYO – China’s airwaves and blogosphere are full of armchair generals predicting swift and righteous victory over Japan if fighting breaks out in the East China Sea. Overheated nonsense, mostly. Everybody thinks their side will win quick and easy before a war starts, but it rarely works out that way.
But at least one senior commander offers a view that – while not necessarily right or wrong – sheds light on how the People’s Liberation Army might view a potential conflict, and what it thinks of Japan’s armed forces.
“The battle to take over the Diaoyu Islands would not be a conventional operation. For either party involved in the war, it would be very difficult to employ their full military capabilities, because there would be no time for them to fully unfold in the fight. The real fight would be very short. It is very possible the war would end in a couple of days or even in a few hours,” said PLA Navy Rear Admiral Yin Zhou, a former director of the Navy Institute of Strategic Studies, in a recent primetime special on Beijing TV.
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My Comment: When I was in China in the fall of 2012 I was astounded by how nationalistic and determined the Chinese were when it came to their territorial disputes with their neighbors. No negotiation. No compromise. Be prepared to use force. Even my Chinese hosts (who are also my friends and who are senior government officials) were voicing the same sentiments .... especially against Japan, Vietnam, and Taiwan.
Is this all talk .... I hope so. But the mood in China has changed into something that I have not seen in my 25 years of going there, especially their willingness to go to war without an appreciation of the consequences is something that we should all be concerned about.
4 comments:
Your last sentence is a little disturbing. How did you come about that assessment? "especially their willingness to go to war without an appreciation of the consequences is something that we should all be concerned about." There has been a lot of bark lately, and they went so far as to use their export power as leverage against Japan, but a military confrontation, whether it be conventional or not is a whole other ball game. I'm interested to know why you assess that they would be willing to start a war so hastily.
Thank you Eric for your comment.
I first visited China in the mid 1980s, even living there in 1988 and in 1989. I go there almost every year, and they also come to where I live in Canada. I have many friends in China and .... over the years coupled with many nights of drinking and eating .... I have developed deep friendships and contacts. These contacts are always open with me .... and I am open to them. We are always arguing and discussing politics, religion, and business. Especially when we are drinking 'white lightning' .... word to the wise .... be very careful when you are drinking that beverage.
My last trip was an eye-opener. All that my friends and contacts wanted to talk about (in both Fujian province and Beijing where I stay) were their territorial disputes. Their loss of face. The need to reclaim what belongs to China, etc. etc. etc..
But what struck me is what a certain retired Chinese Communist official that I have known since 1989 told me when I asked him on what did he think was going to happen .... what was China going to do? His answer was that China was going to reassert their claims and will use their military to do it.
I take his opinions seriously because I will never forget what he told me in April, 1989, when I asked him on what was the Chinese government going to do with the protestors that were occupying Tiananmen square at the time .... his answer .... the tanks will move in by June. I scoffed at him and said no way .... but he was proven dead right 6 weeks later.
His track record, perceptions, instincts, and knowledge of China is beyond reproach .... and that is why I am genuinely scared on what is happening right now in that part of Asia.
Strange, thought you were of the opinion, that you've shared many times, that there would be zero-probability of war/conflict and you did comment many times that you found it unlikely that such a conflict would unfold...
As I've been saying before, consistently, that a conflict was indeed possible because national pride and deep buried hatred on both sides would overrule wisdom.
Thank you D. Plowman for your comment.
My position is evolving. Before I said zero percent .... now I am at 1%. And while I always have faith in man's better angels .... I also do recognize that I am not (cough cough) always correct.
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