Experts: U.S. Must Prepare For Day North Korea Can Put A Nuclear Warhead On A Rocket -- McClatchy News
WASHINGTON — Scientists and security experts studying North Korea’s nuclear test on Tuesday believe the rogue nation is closing in on being able to place a nuclear weapon atop a missile and loft it at another country.
That, all believe, immediately raised the stakes of the dangerous game the North Koreans have been playing for the past decade. The problem for the United States is that with each North Korean advance, the possible U.S. responses decrease and get more aggressive. In fact, some experts believe the options now are just two: a pre-emptive strike on North Korea’s nuclear facilities or targeting any rocket or missile not long after it leaves the launch pad.
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My Comment: They are probably a long way from accomplishing the necessary R&D to put a nuclear warhead on a rocket .... but it is clear that they are working on it.
7 comments:
Why would they bother putting it on a rocket?
A rocket can be tracked, and intercepted.
If they intend to use one of their very small arsenal of nukes, they will load it on a shipping container or a fishing boat and deliver it directly. Can you imagine a 5 kt device going off in Seattle? Portland? LA? Pearl Harbor? San Diego?
Or how about all 5 at once?
Try proving where THAT nuke came from.
Orion
@Orion
Doesn't quite work like that...
Far as I know, the US and I think Russia(?) are the only ones to have ever produced what you could describe as miniature nukes, publicly anyhow. You can't, and let me stress this, CAN'T, strap a 2kt weapon, never mind 5kt's, onto a fishing boat and say bobs your uncle.
The so called suitcase nukes, for example, would be of relative low-power, some not even a fraction of a kt. Of course they would still be more powerful to compared to a rather large sophisticated IED. Lets not forget the weight factor as well.
Bottom Line: I wouldn't worry so much about N.Korea producing these minature nukes, because from what I've understood, from reading about the subject, is that it would be a very complex procedure and it would have to be developed to desguise the nukes signature, another factor.
I don't see the N.Korea being that advanced.
The North Koreans wouldn't have to miniaturize the nukes - An ocean-going fishing boat can carry many tons, as can a shipping container.
For example, Fat Man - our first plutonium bomb, with a yield of 21kt - was about 11 feet x 5 feet and weighed about 5 tons. This would easily fit in either a container unit or a fishing boat. (for example, a standard 20' container is about 20' x 8' x 8' and can carry about 15 tons)
The yield on this latest test was about 6kt.
As for concealing it's signature - why? All we'd know for a very long time is that a nuke went off. Trying to PROVE where it came from would be problematic at best, even if we were able to identify the primary source of the fissionable material.
So, this is far from being a 'suitcase nuke' scenario, or even complex.
Orion
Well, I disagree with your assessment, and it isn't just about weight issues either.
The scenario for a fat-man on a fishing boat is highly unlikely.
My University degree is in Physics (I still shudder when I think about it), so I do have a little background in this even though it has been almost 30 years since I studied this.
The U.S. and Russia are the only two countries capable of producing a suitcase bomb. I do not know about China or Israel, but it would not surprise me if they have some know-how.
The uranium or plutonium that is used in a bomb is also traceable. This is probably the reason why the North Koreans have gone through great lengths to contain any release of radioactive material from this test (and the 2nd test). They do not want anyone to know this.
But my fear is not this or the delivery system of their atomic arsenal. What I am concerned about is that the North Koreans may start to sell their technology and their expertise to those who are willing to pay .... and maybe .... if the price is right ($1 billion or more) a 10K atomic bomb. Hence another reason on why they want no one to know what are the percentage of impurities and makeup of the plutonium and/or uranium that they are using. They are thinking of the far future, and they do not want any fingers pointing at them.
@D.Plowman - And as gentlemen, we can surely agree to disagree. May I ask why you think a boat-delivered nuke is highly unlikely? I'll admit a container-delivered nuke is more likely, but either is quite plausible, I would think. I'm wondering why you have come to a different conclusion?
@Editor: As I explained to Mr. Plowman, I'm not talking about a suitcase nuke. Their existing weapon is about 6kt and would almost certainly fit on either a fishing vessel or into a container. The fissionables are traceable if you have samples - and what if the samples shows a mix of Iranian, Chinese, and Pakistani supplies? :)
I'm as concerned that they'll create a front-group to 'sell' the technology to. For our citizens, the outcome is the same. Plausible deniability for the Norks and a President who would be unwilling to do what was needed afterwards because of it.
Orion
@Orion
Agreed
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