Syria's President Bashar al-Assad heads the plenary meeting of the central committee of the ruling al-Baath party, in Damascus in this handout photograph distributed by Syria's national news agency SANA on July 8, 2013. REUTERS/SANA/Handout via Reuters
Analysis: Confident Assad Sees Syria Tide Turning -- Reuters
(Reuters) - The road to Bashar al-Assad's palace on the edge of Damascus has four checkpoints manned by Republican Guards and plain-clothed police which guests must pass before they reach the main gate.
Inside the People's Palace, in the hills overlooking the Syrian capital, visitors who have seen the Syrian president in the last month say security is surprisingly light for a man who has lost control of half his country to a rebel uprising.
Assad's air of confidence - a constant through more than two years of conflict - appeared almost delusional when rebel mortars and bombs were tearing at the heart of Damascus and fighting closed its airport to foreign airlines late last year.
But after weeks of counter-offensives by Assad's army in the south of the country - against rebel supply routes east of Damascus and most recently in the border town of Qusair - that optimism looks less irrational.
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My Comment: The influx of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon and Shiite supporters from Iran and Iraq has shifted the war in favor of the Assad regime. But is this sustainable .... and will Hezbollah/Iran/etc. still commit themselves to be involved in the Syrian civil war as the bloodshed continues .... that has yet to be seen. But if I was to make a prediction .... my money will be on Hezbollah and Iran becoming disenchanted with the conflict by the end of this year .... especially when they realize that the Syria government simply does not have the manpower nor equipment to take on the Syrian rebel strongholds in places like Aleppo and elsewhere.
1 comment:
Assad has already lost, he's just mad with power and self-entitlement that he doesn't realize it yet.
Even if (it's a very big if) he regains the lost territory and manages to drive the rebels out of their stronghold, he will have to spend the rest of his days dealing with urban guerrilla warfare and underground sectarian conflicts.
There are just far too many Syrians involved, both passively and non-passively, to simply put up with Assad should he regain what was lost. The country is in shambles, retaining governance over specific parts of the country will remain an impossible task. The cost of rebuilding and managing control will be enormous. All this while dealing with an underground rebellion...
Nobody has won anything in Syria, there isn't a war to be won. It was already lost for both sides. Now it's just a case of who comes out the least bloodiest.
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