Thinking The Unthinkable: War Between The U.S. And China

The People's Republic of China flag and the U.S. Stars and Stripes fly along Pennsylvania Avenue near the U.S. Capitol in Washington during Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit, January 18, 2011. REUTERS/Hyungwon Kang

U.S., China And An Unthinkable War -- L.A. Times

Both have planned for a conflict they hope to avoid.

The specter of economic doomsday makes war between China and the United States as unthinkable as fear of nuclear doomsday made Soviet-U.S. war. Or does it? In fact, Chinese and American military planners are thinking in exquisite detail, as they are expected to do, about how to win such a conflict. The problem is that the specific plans being concocted could make hostilities less unthinkable, and two great powers with every reason to avoid war could find themselves in one.

Having been impotent against two U.S. aircraft carriers during the Taiwan crisis of 1996, the People's Liberation Army has concluded, as Chinese military writings show, that the best way to avoid another such humiliation is by striking U.S. forces before they strike China. While not seeking war, the Chinese especially dread a long one, in which the full weight of American military strength would surely prevail. So they are crafting plans and fielding capabilities to take out U.S. carriers, air bases, command-and-control networks and satellites early and swiftly.

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WNU Editor: The National Interest website has been having a series of discussions on a possible U.S. - China conflict. Their latest installment is here.

As to what is my take on thinking the unthinkable .... it is not going to happen .... today. But as China continues to build-up its forces and tries to enforce their territorial claims .... that opens an entirely new collection of scenarios .... scenarios that may make the unthinkable actually very thinkable.