Free Syrian Army fighters run for cover after Syrian forces fired a mortar in the El Amreeyeh neighbourhood of Syria's northwestern city of Aleppo. Photograph: Youssef Boudlal/Reuters
Political Science Says Syria’s Civil War Will Probably Last At Least Another Decade -- Max Fisher, Washington Post
The Obama administration appears to be deadlocked over what to do in Syria, forcing a policy of inaction, according to a widely circulating New York Times story. But U.S. officials will likely have years more time to debate what to do about Syria's civil war, which could continue into and perhaps through the next presidential administration. According to a review of the political science on the duration of civil wars, Syria's conflict will most likely last through 2020 and perhaps well beyond.
Syria's conflict began with April 2011 protests and subsequent crackdowns. It's not clear the precise moment when it became a civil war, but many media organizations began referring to it as such around early or mid 2012. At most, you might say the war has been waging now for two years. According to studies of intra-state conflicts since 1945, civil wars tend to last an average of about seven to 12 years. That would put the end of the war somewhere between 2018 and 2023.
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My Comment: A depressing analysis .... and one that I am forced to agree with.
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