U.S. Forces Are Preparing For A Profound Shift In Strategy On Afghanistan

Australian army Lance Cpl. Liam Sullivan, left, and Pvt. Nathan Hawke provide security as a delegation of Afghan and International Security Assistance Force representatives arrive aboard a U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter in Nili in Daykundi province, Afghanistan, Nov. 9, 2013. Australian Defense Force photo by Cpl. Mark Doran

The Afghan Security Agreement Marks a Profound Shift in Strategy -- Jacob Siegel, The Daily Beast

If the new security agreement between Washington and Kabul is signed it will mark a major change from a broad counter-insurgency war to a limited counter-terrorist operation.

One way or the other most American troops will leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and the war as we know it will end. The question now being decided in fraught negotiations between Washington and Kabul is whether the U.S. can purchase the right to keep a military presence in Afghanistan after the main war effort is over that can protect national interests and launch targeted operations against terrorists. If the Afghan government agrees to the plan currently being discussed what remains after 2014 will be a much smaller more specialized force refocused from fighting the Taliban and maintaining security to hunting hardcore al Qaeda affiliates across the region.

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My Comment: I concur with this analysis .... when this new security agreement between Washington and Kabul is signed, it will mark a major change from a broad counter-insurgency war to a limited counter-terrorist operation. What may change the dynamics is if the Taliban start to gain (and gain significantly) the upper hand in battles against the Afghan Army. If this starts to happen .... the U.S. may find itself launching (again) a broad counter-insurgency war in the countryside, or it may (like Vietnam) decide to pick up and leave.