Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Will Iran Spark An 'OPEC Oil Pirce War'?

 

Return Of Iran Crude May Spark OPEC ‘Price War’ -- CNBC 
 
The possible lifting of sanctions against Iran as early as next year - setting the stage for the return of the country's oil exports - may spark a "price war" within OPEC as rival producers try to compete with heavily discounted crude offered by Tehran. International sanctions aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program have more than halved the country's oil exports to about 1 million barrels a day since the beginning of 2012.

But a recent thaw in relations with the West under a more moderate leadership led by President Hassan Rouhani who took office in August has raised expectations that the embargo may be rolled back.

Though this may free up oil exports only months later, some oil strategists warn it could add extra volume to an already saturated market, depressing prices and unsettling the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which pump more than a third of the world's oil.

Read more ....

My Comment: I suspect that there are many Iranians (including the government) who are looking forward to the day when sanctions are lifted .... this would mean an increase in investment in their oil sector .... and in turn more revenues via through greater oil production. In theory this is what everyone hopes .... in practice .... this would probably spark a price war within OPEC itself. Fracking expansion and growth is already dumping excess oil onto the markets .... throw in the possibility of a return to stability in places like Libya and Iraq .... will in the end mean even a few more million barrels of oil on the market. For Iran to have an impact they will need to discount their oil appreciably .... but then the question arises .... will it be worth it ... and more to the point .... how will oil giants and exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia respond.

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