Is War With China Inevitable?

Chinese and U.S. flags are arranged during the third annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) at the State Department in Washington May 9, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque/Files

China Ascendant: Is Conflict Inevitable? -- Rajan Menon, National Interest

Thucydides’ purpose in his great epic was to account for “what led to this great war falling upon the Hellenes.” He acknowledged that what we know as the Peloponnesian War was produced by many different disputes and depicted them masterfully, laying bare their specificities. But, in the opening pages, he warns us that dwelling on the particulars obscures “the real reason” for carnage that ruined Hellas. “What made war inevitable,” he tells us early on in his masterpiece, “was the growth of Athenian power and the fear it caused in Sparta.” He might have added, for his account makes it abundantly clear that such was the case, “and in Sparta’s closest allies as well.” Among the lessons offered by Thucydides is that we ought not to dwell on the trees and risk missing the lines of the forest—the larger trends that drive politics and war.

Thucydides’ epic has inspired many explorations of what in international-relations scholarship is referred to as “power transitions.” Not a few of these studies conclude that these mega-shifts are among the most perilous periods in the politics among nations. Why? Because the established, dominant power fears that, even if it is has not yet been surpassed and may not be anytime soon, the margin of its advantage over an ascendant rival, which it has long watched uneasily, is diminishing—and will likely continue to do so. The rising power, having lived under a political-military-cultural-institutional order that reflects the preponderance of the reigning hegemon, and that therefore protects and advances its interests, grows in confidence. Eager to demonstrate to itself and others that a new era is nigh, it begins to probe and to push so as to assay the reaction and explore the possibilities.

Read more ....

My Comment: I have been a regular visitor to China since the mid-1980s .... developing a good number of friendships and acquaintances. From these trips I have always had the belief that China would never get itself involved in a major conflict with the U.S. .... there will be no benefit to them, and there will be a very real possibility of serious harm being done to China. But China has changed in the past few years .... there is now a growing militancy and nationalism in China that I have never seen before .... it is almost as if they are looking for a fight .... especially against one of their more weaker neighbors. Will this evolve into a war with the U.S. is difficult to say, but my main concern has always been the same .... an Asian conflict that quickly morphs into the U.S. becoming involved because of treaty obligations. If that happens .... then all bets on what will happen next will be off.