Sunday, December 29, 2013

U.S. Intelligence Estimate Warns Afghanistan Gains Will Be Lost Quickly After U.S. And NATO Forces Leave

RETURNING HOME
U.S. soldiers prepare to board a CH-47 Chinook from Camp Phoenix in Kabul, Afghanistan, Dec. 25, 2013, during Guam's last push out of the country. The soldiers are assigned to Task Force Guam, 1st Battalion, 294th Infantry Regiment, Guam Army National Guard. The task force officially ended Operation Enduring Freedom, Dec. 26, 2013, enabling Guardsmen to return home. U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. Eddie Siguenza

Afghanistan Gains Will Be Lost Quickly After Drawdown, U.S. Intelligence Estimate Warns -- Ernesto LondoƱo, Karen DeYoung and Greg Miller, Washington Post

A new American intelligence assessment on the Afghan war predicts that the gains the United States and its allies have made during the past three years are likely to have been significantly eroded by 2017, even if Washington leaves behind a few thousand troops and continues bankrolling the impoverished nation, according to officials familiar with the report.

The National Intelligence Estimate, which includes input from the country’s 16 intelligence agencies, predicts that the Taliban and other power brokers will become increasingly influential as the United States winds down its longest war in history, according to officials who have read the classified report or received briefings on its conclusions. The grim outlook is fueling a policy debate inside the Obama administration about the steps it should take over the next year as the U.S. military draws down its remaining troops.

Read more ....

My Comment: This assessment is on the money. It took four years after the Soviets left in 1988 for Afghanistan to implode .... it will probably take the same length of time to repeat history when US forces have left the country.

Update: U.S. intelligence estimate sees big rollbacks in Afghanistan: report -- Reuters

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