Four Middle Eastern Elections To Watch This Year

Four Elections That Will Shape Future Of The Middle East -- Faisal Al Yafai, The National

Wait long enough for elections in the Middle East and eventually four come along at the same time. This year, four of the most pivotal countries in the region will hold national elections for the head of state: Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Egypt.

In each case, the front-runner is a familiar face. But each election is also raising a more fundamental question about the direction of the country. Taken together, the changes brought by all four will probably alter the landscape of the region.

Start in Egypt, where voting has started today on a referendum on the proposed constitution. A strong showing in favour of the constitution will make it almost certain that military chief General Abdel Fattah El Sisi will stand in the autumn presidential elections. More fundamentally, the referendum and the presidential election will set the direction for Egypt’s trajectory and cement the strategy of removing the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood from power. If turnout in both cases is high, the US, which initially opposed the removal of Mohammed Morsi, will have to admit the Egyptian army has popular support for its decisions.

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My Comment: I expect zero changes. The military (or their proxies) will continue to run Egypt. The AKP will continue to rule Turkey. Iraqi PM Nouri Al Maliki will probably win but he is increasingly governing a country that is fragmenting along sectarian lines. And Syrian President Assad .... he will still continue to rule that past of the country where his military has control.