North Koreans attend a mass rally at Kim Il-Sung square in Pyongyang. (Reuters)
The Complex Calculus Of A North Korean Collapse -- Doug Bandow, National Interest
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea remains a sui generis communist monarchy wrapped in mystery, prone to sporadic brinkmanship and violent spasms. The young leader’s surprise execution of his uncle suggests regime instability, which might spark new international provocations for domestic political purposes.
The latest events have rekindled predictions of a possible North Korean collapse. The greatest danger is that the US would get drawn into the resulting chaos and conflict. Warned the Rand Corporation’s Bruce W. Bennett: “Inadequately prepared, the ROK and the United States could suffer many serious consequences, including a failed or aborted intervention, a destabilization of the region, and possibly broader warfare.”
The Korean peninsula became a U.S. security concern when the US and Soviet Union divided the former Japanese colony after Tokyo’s World War II surrender. Two competing and hostile states emerged, leading to the Korean War. The Truman administration intervened to prevent the DPRK from conquering the South; U.S. troops remained.
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My Comment: One only has to look at the collapse of communism in Europe to gauge how the regime would collapse in North Korea .... and in my opinion .... what happened in Romania and the fall (and execution) of Nicolae Ceausescu is probably the most like scenario for now. But before that happens (if it does happen) .... I cannot help but see decades of more misery ahead for North Korea.
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