Some Economic Predictions For 2014

A World Economy On The Brink Of Fracture -- Jeremy Warner, The Telegraph

What will happen in 2014? The Chinese economy will slow; the price of oil will sink; Germany will slide into recession; the UK will remain intact and the internet will begin to Balkanise

Up against a gathering credit crunch, the Chinese economy will slow to almost stall-speed; the price of Brent crude will sink below $80 a barrel; Germany will slide back into recession; the eurozone will remain intact and the internet will begin to Balkanise, leading to a boom in encryption technology but problems for the big global online brands.

’Tis the season for self-indulgent – and mainly futile – crystal ball gazing. What does the future hold for the economy and markets? Normal health and wealth warnings apply.

My big prediction is for $80 oil, from which much of the rest of my outlook for the coming year flows. It’s hard to overstate the significance of a much lower oil price – Brent at, say, $80 a barrel, or perhaps lower still – yet this is a surprisingly likely prospect, the implications of which have been largely missed by mainstream economic forecasters.

But first, there’s the frequently humiliating task of revisiting last year’s predictions.

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My Comment: The U.S. debt crisis is my number one concern.